Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 2.229952 2.353385 2.486891 2.643370 2.823584 3.027016 3.277655
2025-09-21 2.088469 2.242978 2.417136 2.631380 2.893022 3.209873 3.636341
2025-09-28 1.972253 2.141502 2.337367 2.586202 2.902827 3.306865 3.890937
2025-10-05 1.929109 2.118020 2.342643 2.637966 3.031279 3.565010 4.410010
2025-10-12 1.905189 2.113495 2.367618 2.713141 3.195344 3.895145 5.131255
2025-10-19 1.848774 2.064173 2.331242 2.702376 3.236924 4.050733 5.617044
2025-10-26 1.805909 2.028613 2.309035 2.707088 3.298849 4.246297 6.258856
2025-11-02 1.745302 1.967117 2.248824 2.653525 3.266291 4.277527 6.567855
2025-11-09 1.703968 1.928300 2.216179 2.635878 3.286095 4.402010 7.165541
2025-11-16 1.667858 1.894497 2.188159 2.622279 3.309872 4.537119 7.888570
2025-11-23 1.633157 1.861006 2.158697 2.604125 3.323612 4.654940 8.668615
2025-11-30 1.613180 1.845973 2.153483 2.621130 3.397130 4.909037 10.260187
2025-12-07 1.560328 1.786470 2.085622 2.541534 3.300791 4.790610 10.192603
2025-12-14 1.533198 1.760496 2.063480 2.530547 3.323692 4.942259 11.728354
2025-12-21 1.498113 1.722688 2.023186 2.489096 3.288188 4.952832 12.556003
2025-12-28 1.492866 1.724909 2.039385 2.536588 3.419249 5.400388 18.803998
2026-01-04 1.493926 1.735562 2.067860 2.605386 3.600340 6.063784 54.819240
2026-01-11 1.472506 1.714427 2.049090 2.595548 3.625060 6.289792 NaN
2026-01-18 1.456161 1.699817 2.039267 2.599856 3.679158 6.637391 NaN
2026-01-25 1.426225 1.665456 1.999061 2.550847 3.616382 6.560746 NaN
2026-02-01 1.406402 1.644829 1.978700 2.534678 3.622591 6.741377 NaN
2026-02-08 1.388473 1.626417 1.961047 2.522210 3.635604 6.957811 NaN
2026-02-15 1.370252 1.607165 1.941535 2.505555 3.637817 7.136962 NaN